Kemerburgaz Nature NotebookFour seasons and one night at the edge of the Belgrade ForestFour seasons, one night
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Contents
ix · Climate scenarios
IPCC AR6 · 2081–2100

Three roads to 2100

What lies ahead for the wildlife of Kemerburgaz along the IPCC’s three emission pathways? Which species will warming, drought and changes along the migration routes bring here, and which will they drive away?

Global mean warming, 2081–2100Relative to the 1850–1900 mean · dot: best estimate, bar: very likely range0 °C1 °C2 °C3 °C4 °C5 °C6 °C1.5 °C · the Paris targetSSP1-2.6Low emissions1.8 °CSSP2-4.5Middle of the road2.7 °CSSP5-8.5High emissions4.4 °C
Global mean warming, 2081–2100Relative to 1850–1900 · dot: best estimate0 °C1 °C2 °C3 °C4 °C5 °C6 °C1.5 °C · the Paris targetSSP1-2.61.8 °CSSP2-4.52.7 °CSSP5-8.54.4 °C
Source: IPCC AR6 WGI, Tablo SPM.1

What this means in the Mediterranean basin

  • Summer warming is running about 50% faster than the global annual mean.
  • Depending on the scenario, rainfall could fall by 4–22% in most places.
Increase in the area of forest burned, by level of warming
What this means for Kemerburgaz

What the four outcomes mean

The figures apply to the selected scenario.

In the table below every species is marked with one of four outcomes. These say nothing about whether a species is doing well or badly; they say how liveable Kemerburgaz will remain for it in a warming climate.

Twenty-two species from the notebook under three scenarios

Each row in the table is a species and each column a scenario. Click a row to read why that species follows this path under the three scenarios and what the assessment is based on.

Draft classification. A qualitative first assessment based on the species’ ecology and the sources below; to be checked species by species before publication.A local loss is not extinction: a species that withdraws from Kemerburgaz may carry on living elsewhere.
Sahara · the crossing is lengtheningSahel · the wintering grounds are drying outwinter visitors: fewer may come downwhite storkbarn swallowbee-eaterhoney buzzardKemerburgaz
The migration routes are the same as on the notebook’s map; the bands are schematic.

What is changing along the migration route

For a migratory bird the danger is not only the summer here; the whole journey matters. Where it winters, the desert it crosses and the food it finds on arrival are all changing at once.

Sources